This content was published: January 16, 2009. Phone numbers, email addresses, and other information may have changed.
State economist offers gloomy preview of budget prediction
Photos and story by Dana Haynes
So I went to hear Tom Potiowsky, the state economist, give a preview of the next economic forecast before the House Revenue Committee this morning. I wouldn’t say Professor Potiowsky committed ritual suicide at the meeting, but darn close.
It was gloomy news. The revenue continues to drop like an anvil in a Warner Bros. cartoon.
In December, Gov. Ted Kulongoski offered up his budget proposal, which increased funding for public K-12 schools and the Oregon University System, while cutting funding for community colleges. This, at a time the 17 independent community colleges are seeing 10 percent increases in enrollment, year over year.
Potiowsky’s preview of the late-February revenue forecast suggests that the governor’s proposal to “hold harmless” K-12 and the OUS schools is unlikely to survive.
As reported by Peter Wong at the Statesman Journal, the governor based his 2009-11 budget on a mid-November estimate of $16.1 billion in the general fund, which relies largely on income taxes and lottery proceeds. But Potiowsky says the latest economic trends suggest that lawmakers will have just $15.1 billion to play with for the next two years.
What does this mean for PCC? Nobody knows. There’s a long way to go before the co-chairs of the Ways and Means Committee present their budget. And a long way to go before the 90 lawmakers adopt a budget.
Buckle up. It’s going to be an interesting ride.